Skip to main content

Introduction

The apocalypse is approaching rapidly, according to a wide variety of media outlets. It is therefore the first responsibility of the systems engineering community to model it correctly. In a technical note published entirely coincidentally on April Fool’s Day, we contribute to that important work. Links to the technical note and downloadable SysML models are available at the end of the post.

Modeling How The World Ends

In Figure 1, we model potentially world-ending threats in terms of three factors, the source or origin of the threat, the nature of the threat, and the target of the threat.

Basic structure of the End of the World - How The World Ends

Figure 1 Basic structure of the End of the World

In Figure 2, we show a variety of threats, ranging from Asteroid Strike to Singularity, the subordination of humanity to artificial intelligence.

threats to the end of the world - How The World Ends

Figure 2 Threats

Having specified the possible threats, MBSE also provides means to quantify them. The SysML model created includes parametric diagrams where we calculate the normalized risk of a threat, the product of its risk of occurrence, coverage of population and impact. The model recognizes that threats are not uncorrelated, for example, even a limited nuclear war may give rise to climate change through global cooling. Figure 3 shows a solved instance for this scenario, with the comforting result that total cumulative risk per decade is no greater than 2.6%.

Cumulative risk of nuclear war and climate change end of the world - How The World Ends

Figure 3 SysML parametric analysis, cumulative risk of limited nuclear war and climate change

Technote: How the World Ends

SysML Models:

About the Author

Dr. Dirk Zwemer (dirk.zwemer@intercax.com) is President of Intercax LLC (Atlanta, GA), a supplier of MBE engineering software platforms like Syndeia and ParaMagic. He resides in an underground bunker in an undisclosed location.

MBSE SysML Course Blog Ad (1)

Tags:
Blog

Related Posts

Syndeia AI - Jira Agent, Part 3

We have all been there, trying to write complex query expressions or fill out a form with filters and drop downs to find issues in Jira. But now, you can finally talk with your ...
Manas Bajaj

Syndeia AI - SysML 2.0 Agent, Part 2

Greetings and welcome to an overview of the Syndeia AI - SysML 2.0 Agent. Syndeia AI is a collection of AI agents built on Syndeia Cloud. These AI agents are capable of processing ...
Manas Bajaj

Syndeia AI Agents, Part 1

Hello and welcome to a preview of Syndeia AI, a collection of AI agents that are powered by Syndeia Cloud. These AI agents can take natural language inputs, fetch latest data from ...
Manas Bajaj

Santa’s Mission 2024 with 8.2 billion landings made possible by Digital Threads (Day 5)

Santa has just returned from his whirlwind journey, and the workshop erupts in cheers. Elves spill into the command center, their faces glowing with joy and pride as they take in ...
Manas Bajaj

SDS Hardware, Software, and Verification Digital Threads go live (Day 4)

The air hums with the sound of high-tech enchantments and the cheerful chatter of elves hard at work. Twinkling fairy lights hang from the rafters, casting a warm, festive glow. ...
Manas Bajaj

3D Sleigh Assembly model coordinated with System Architecture (Day 3)

It is Day 3 and Tony Sparkgear (Chief-Hardware-Elf) had his team of elves are working hard to create a 3D model in NX parametric software to represent the Sleigh Assembly as shown ...
Manas Bajaj

Sleigh Delivery System – Architecture & Digital Thread Dashboard (Day 2)

It is 7 AM and North Pole is bathing in the first light of dawn reflecting from the snow. The Great Hall, ground zero of operations and logistics, is hustling and bustling with ...
Manas Bajaj

North Pole Calls Intercax for Digital Mission Possible (Day 1)

Today, Intercax received a call from Mrs. Claus, the heart and soul of operations and logistics at North Pole. Seven days from the finale and at a time when hope and love cannot ...
Manas Bajaj

SysML v2 and Digital Threads with Syndeia

SysML v2 is the next generation Systems Modeling Language for modeling complex systems that significantly enhances precision, expressiveness, usability, interoperability, and ...
Manas Bajaj